Weekly Outlook for 9-13 April 2012

Weekly Outlook for 9-13 April 2012

During the second week of April there are several financial publications hat may affect the forex and commodities markets. Among the reports to be published are: U.S. consumer price index, American and Canadian trade balance, Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and rate decision, U.S PPI, Federal budget balance and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar forecast for the week of April 9th to April 13th that highlights news items regarding to the U.S., Canada, EU, China. Japan, and Australia.

(All times GMT):

Monday 9th of April tentative –China’s Trade Balance: according to the previous report, China’s trade balance changed direction from a $27.3 billion surplus to a $31.5 billion deficit; if this trend will continue it could indicate that China’s economic growth is slowing down and thus may adversely affect prices of commodities;
Monday 9th of April 19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will present the changes in the U.S federal balance for March 2012; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the last report regarding February the deficit sharply rose by $231 billion; this report may affect the strength of the US dollar;
Monday 9th of April 3:30 – Chinese Consumer Price Index: during February, the Chinese inflation rate sharply fell to an annual rate of 3.2% (it was 4.5% in January); this rate is well below China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. If the inflation will continue to fall, it could induce the People Bank of China’s ease some of its monetary restrictions to jumpstart the economy; China is among the leading countries in importing commodities such as gold and oil;
Monday 9th of April 02:00 –China First quarter GDP for 2012: during the fourth quarter of 2011, China grew by 8.9% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the Q1 2012 grew in annul terms at a slower pace than during the fourth quarter of 2011; I speculate if the growth rate will be low than the 9% mark it may adversely affect commodities prices;

Tuesday 10th of April tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will decide on its interest rate and monetary policy. Up to now, BOJ left the interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1 percent. If the BOJ will introduce monetary stimulus plans, it could affect the Yen and commodities prices because Japan is among the leading countries in importing commodities including oil, and natural gas;

Wednesday 11th of April 9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly bulletin for February 2012 examines the economic situation of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and government’s debt; this report might provide some insight into the current expectations of the economic growth of the Euro Area;
Wednesday 11th of April 15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 6th;
Wednesday 11th of April 2:30 – Australia Rate of Unemployment: in the previous report regarding February 2012 the rate of unemployment edged up to 5.2%; the number of employed fell by 15,400 people; the number of unemployed slightly rose by 16,400 during February compared with January’s figures. If this trend ill continue to could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday 12th of April 13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding January 2012, exports decreased by 2.3%, and imports edged down by 0.6%; as a result, the trade balance shrunk to a surplus of $2.1 billion; this report may affect the trading of the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly correlated with price of gold and crude oil;
Thursday 12th of April tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will show the main changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also analyze the developments in the production of OPEC countries during March; the recent fluctuations in crude oil prices might be stem, in part, from the changes in OPEC’s oil production; (See here a summary of the last February report);
Thursday 12th of April tentative –IEA monthly oil report: this upcoming report will present an updated (as of March) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil market for 2012 and 2013 (See here a summary of the previous report);
Thursday 12th of April 13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the progress in the PPI during March 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding February this index for finished goods edged up by 0.4% compared with January’s rate and rose by 3.3% in the past 12 months; this news might affect the direction of gold and silver prices;
Thursday 12th of April 13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for February 2012 will present the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as crude oil; The American trade balance report for January 2011 the goods and services deficit increased during the month to $52.6 billion.
Thursday 12th of April 13:30 – U.S. Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Update: this weekly update will refer to he changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 7th; this upcoming weekly update may affect the strength of the US dollar and consequently may affect the direction of commodities prices;
Thursday 12th of April 15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Report: this EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will present the recent changes natural gas production, storage, consumption and price developments for the week ending on April 6th; if the natural gas storage will rise, it may adversely affect the prices of natural gas in the U.S;

Friday 13th of April 09:30 – Great Britain PPI Input: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s producer price index for March 2012; in the last report regarding February the input price rose by 2.1% (M-2-M); this news may influence British Pound traders;
Friday 13th of April 13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will present the main changes in the core consumer price index during March 2012. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics in February 2012, the core CPI rose by 0.4% (M-o-M) and also increased over the last 12 months by 2.2%;
Friday 13th of April 14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will show the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in February 2012. In the previous report regarding January 2012, the net foreign purchases of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached $101 billion;